Exploratory Foresight and Scenario Mapping of Innovative Organizational Culture in the Iranian Administrative System

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD Student in Public Administration, Department of Public Administration, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Management, Shahid Sattari University of Aeronautical Sciences and Technology, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Public Administration, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Background and Aim: Today, the unprecedented acceleration of changes in technology, economy, society, and politics is transforming governance structures and processes, making the adaptability of the administrative system more dependent than ever on its soft, flexible capacities. Within this context, an innovative organizational culture serves as a key driving force, playing a vital role in enhancing the resilience and adaptability of the administrative system against future uncertainties and challenges. The aim of this study is to design and map future scenarios for the innovative organizational culture within Iran’s administrative system—scenarios that chart a clear path for managing change and, alongside maintaining governance efficiency and responsiveness, contribute to improving the quality of public services, strengthening social welfare and economic development, and increasing public trust.

Methodology: This research adopts an exploratory foresight approach based on the six phase Schwartz model. In the first phase, using the Delphi method and insights from 16 experts, seven key factors of the innovative organizational culture model were identified and ranked according to importance and consensus criteria. In the second phase, impact–uncertainty analysis was conducted using a validated model, leading to the identification of two critical uncertainties: digital transformation and smart infrastructure development and foresight oriented and innovative vision—which were determined to be the main axes for scenario writing.

Findings: Combining these two axes produced four distinct scenarios: Innovative Pioneer, Directionless Technologist, Sustainable Strategy, and Administrative Confusion. Analysis indicated that the desirable approach is a hybrid of the Innovative Pioneer scenario (technological agility and strategic coherence) and the Sustainable Strategy scenario (risk management and service quality continuity).

Conclusion: Implementing this hybrid strategy can enhance productivity, strengthen social capital, and consolidate the administrative system’s position as a driving engine of national development.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Comparative Public Administration
Volume 4, Issue 2
September 2026
Pages 228-254

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History

  • Receive Date: 09 October 2025
  • Revise Date: 28 December 2025
  • Accept Date: 23 February 2026

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